For the last couple of years X (formerly Twitter) has been at the centre of much social media controversy and, with the latest involving loosened blocking features and its owner, Elon Musk’s, latest stint in the US election, the site is experiencing a notable exodus of users. Even two weeks later, this mass move to another site that might fill the gap continues.
The reasons are multifaceted, and not sudden: platform fatigue, discontent with Elon Musk’s controversial leadership decisions, and the evolving preferences of digital communities.
This migration has led to a showdown between two promising challengers: Meta’s Threads and Bluesky, a decentralised social network with strong grassroots appeal. The critical question remains: who will emerge victorious, or will X weather the storm and retain its dominance despite these challenges?
Why Are Users Leaving X?
The dissatisfaction with X stems from an array of factors, many of which have been brewing since Elon Musk’s high-profile takeover in late 2022. Under Musk’s leadership, X has undergone significant changes—some innovative, others controversial—that have fundamentally altered its identity.
While his vision aimed to transform X into a more dynamic, free-speech-oriented, and monetisable platform, the execution has alienated parts of its user base.
The Rebrand
Musk’s management style and decision-making have drawn sharp criticism. The rebranding of Twitter to X was emblematic of his bold but polarising approach. Many users viewed the change as unnecessary and symbolic of a larger shift away from the platform’s legacy appeal. Twitter, once synonymous with concise, meaningful discourse, now feels unfamiliar to some longtime users.
Those users, who valued the platform for real-time news updates and concise interactions, now find it cluttered and less focused. The sense of community that once defined the platform has also been weakened, as users migrate away or disengage.
The Verified Checkmark
Ever wonder why you’re now paying to be verified everywhere? You can thank X for that. Previously, the blue checkmark served as a tool for verifying public figures, journalists, and notable businesses, helping users distinguish credible sources from impersonators. Musk replaced this system with a pay-to-play model via X Premium, where anyone willing to pay a subscription fee could obtain the coveted blue check.
For many, this move diluted the value of verification and led to widespread impersonation issues. Critics argue that the change undermined trust on the platform, particularly in the context of breaking news and political discourse, where credibility is paramount.
Loosened Moderation Policies
One of Musk’s core promises was to champion free speech on X, which he believed had been stifled by overly aggressive moderation. Under his leadership, the platform rolled back many moderation policies and reinstated banned accounts, including those of controversial figures. He’s also loosened blocking’s effectiveness on the app – with blocked users now able to see posts by those who have blocked them, and the other way around, despite not being able to interact.
While this move was celebrated by advocates of free expression, it also invited a surge of harmful content, including hate speech, misinformation, and harassment. For many users, the increase in toxicity has made X a less welcoming space.
The 2024 U.S. election season has exacerbated these issues, as political misinformation and divisive rhetoric flooded the platform. This erosion of trust and civility has driven users to seek alternatives with stronger safeguards.
Fatigue and Alternative Options
Finally, much like for myself, platform fatigue plays a significant role.
Many users are simply tired of the constant upheaval and drama surrounding X, from Musk’s public antics to the platform’s evolving policies. The availability of alternatives like Threads and Bluesky offers a tempting escape for those seeking stability and a fresh start. These platforms, while not perfect, have capitalised on X’s turmoil by presenting themselves as cleaner, calmer, and more community-oriented spaces.
Threads: The Corporate Contender
Meta’s Threads, launched in mid-2023, entered the social media arena as a bold response to the chaos and dissatisfaction surrounding X. Positioned as a cleaner, friendlier, and more familiar alternative, Threads leveraged Instagram’s massive user base to achieve rapid adoption. Within the first few days, millions of users signed up, with the platform enjoying the fastest growth rate for any social media app to date, now sitting pretty with 275 million active uses. However, despite an explosive start, Threads faced significant hurdles in retaining its user base—a challenge Meta has been working to overcome.
Rapid Growth Meets Retention Woes
Threads’ launch was characterised by curiosity and excitement, but this initial buzz was quickly tempered by frustration over its limitations. Key features that users had come to expect from X, such as trending topics, a robust search functionality, hashtags, and a chronological feed, were absent. These omissions left early adopters feeling as though the platform was undercooked, especially for those seeking a replacement for X’s real-time, news-driven format.
However, Meta has taken an iterative approach to addressing these concerns. Updates have rolled out steadily, introducing features like a chronological feed, search improvements, and better integration with Instagram. By responding to user feedback and emphasising long-term development, Threads has begun to close the gap between itself and X.
Meta’s Ecosystem: A Game-Changing Advantage
The most significant strength Threads brings to the table is Meta’s sprawling ecosystem. By integrating Threads with Instagram, Meta gave the app a head start, with billions of potential users. Signing up for Threads is as simple as linking an Instagram account, which eliminates the friction of building a social graph from scratch. This seamless integration has proven especially appealing for influencers, brands, and businesses already established on Instagram.
Furthermore, unlike Bluesky or other smaller challengers such as Mastodon, Threads benefits from Meta’s vast financial resources, sophisticated ad infrastructure, and a clear path to profitability.
Despite its strong start and promising updates, Threads still faces challenges. One of its greatest hurdles is differentiation: how can it carve out a distinct identity rather than being seen as an Instagram add-on or an X clone? To sustain long-term growth, Threads must balance borrowing successful elements from X with introducing unique features that give users a compelling reason to stay.
Bluesky: The Underdog with a Decentralised Edge
Bluesky, originally a Twitter offshoot supported by Jack Dorsey (former CEO of Twitter), is the antithesis of corporate-backed platforms like Threads. It promotes decentralisation, allowing users more control over their data and algorithmic experiences. Its initial invitation-only model created an aura of exclusivity, attracting tech-savvy users, activists, and content creators who value freedom from centralised oversight.
However, Bluesky faces significant hurdles in scaling up. Its user base is niche, and the infrastructure for decentralisation remains a work in progress. Without significant funding or partnerships, Bluesky may struggle to compete with the polished experiences offered by Threads or X. Still, for users disenchanted with corporate social media and seeking a more grassroots feel, Bluesky is a compelling alternative.
Decentralisation: Bluesky’s Core Appeal
At its heart, Bluesky is built on the AT Protocol, a decentralised framework that enables users to have greater control over their data and experience. This approach challenges the traditional social media model, where platforms control algorithms, harvest user data, and dictate the terms of engagement.
Decentralisation empowers users in several ways:
- Algorithmic Freedom: Bluesky allows users to choose or even create their own algorithms, tailoring their feed to their preferences instead of being subjected to opaque corporate algorithms designed to maximise engagement at any cost.
- Data Ownership: In contrast to platforms like Threads and X, where data often serves as currency for advertisers, Bluesky prioritises giving users ownership and control over their personal information.
- Interoperability: The AT Protocol aims to connect Bluesky with other decentralised networks, creating a broader, open ecosystem where users can interact across platforms without being siloed.
Challenges in Scaling Up
Bluesky’s commitment to decentralisation, while visionary, presents significant challenges. Building the infrastructure for a decentralised platform is inherently more complex than creating a centralised system. Issues like interoperability, user-friendly design, and seamless onboarding remain works in progress.
Moreover, Bluesky’s current user base is niche, and expanding beyond this demographic will require substantial resources. Without the deep pockets of Meta or the cultural entrenchment of X, Bluesky faces an uphill battle to secure funding, attract developers, and market itself to a broader audience. This lack of financial and organisational heft could limit its ability to compete with the polished experiences offered by Threads or X.
A Grassroots Feel in a Corporate World
What Bluesky lacks in scale, it makes up for in authenticity. Unlike Threads, which is closely tied to Meta’s corporate ecosystem, Bluesky feels genuinely user driven. This grassroots appeal resonates with individuals and communities tired of the profit-first mindset that defines many social media platforms.
Bluesky’s approach also stands out in its resistance to becoming another ad-driven network. By focusing on user value over advertiser interests, the platform avoids many of the pitfalls—like invasive data harvesting and algorithmic manipulation—that have led to widespread distrust of social media giants. However, many don’t expect this lack of monetisation to last on the platform as it gains traction.
Who Will Win the Xodus?
The mass migration from X has set the stage for a high-stakes competition among social media platforms vying for its departing users. The ultimate winner—or winners—will depend on shifting user priorities and the strategic decisions of the contenders. Here’s a closer look at potential scenarios and the factors that could determine the outcome.
Scenario 1: Threads Takes the Lead
Meta’s Threads is well-positioned to capitalise on X’s missteps. With its integration into Instagram’s ecosystem and ongoing efforts to address early criticisms, Threads has the infrastructure and resources to capture a significant share of X’s market. Its appeal lies in:
- Scalability: Threads can easily host massive user bases thanks to Meta’s robust servers and experience managing platforms like Instagram and Facebook.
- User-Friendly Approach: By adding features like chronological feeds and trending topics, Threads is addressing its initial shortcomings and making itself more competitive with X.
- Brand Safety: Threads markets itself as a cleaner, safer space, appealing to users who are fatigued by the toxicity and unpredictability of X.
The 2024 U.S. election could be a turning point for Threads. If X becomes a hotbed for misinformation and harassment, Threads could emerge as a safer, more familiar alternative for users seeking refuge from the chaos. Furthermore, advertisers who have pulled back from X may find Threads’ polished, brand-safe environment more attractive.
However, Threads’ success hinges on its ability to differentiate itself beyond being “the friendlier X.” Without unique features or cultural relevance, it risks being viewed as a derivative alternative rather than a primary destination.
Scenario 2: Bluesky Finds Its Niche
Bluesky may not aspire to the same scale as Threads or X, but its potential lies in cultivating a devoted user base that values its decentralised ethos. As social media evolves, niche platforms are proving that there’s room for smaller players who prioritise specific communities or philosophies.
Bluesky’s strengths include:
- Decentralisation: The platform’s AT Protocol allows for algorithmic customisation and user control, appealing to those disillusioned with corporate oversight.
- Grassroots Appeal: Bluesky’s lack of ads and focus on user-driven development set it apart from mainstream platforms.
While it’s unlikely to reach the scale of Threads or X, Bluesky doesn’t need to. By leaning into its niche and refining its decentralised infrastructure, it can build a loyal following. Its trajectory could mirror that of Mastodon or Reddit, thriving as an alternative for users who prioritise privacy, control, and community over scale.
However, Bluesky faces hurdles in funding and scalability. Without significant partnerships it may struggle to expand beyond its core audience.
Scenario 3: X Retains Its Crown
Despite the turmoil, X remains a cultural juggernaut. Its dominance in real-time conversation, breaking news, and political discourse ensures it continues to be relevant, even amidst controversy. For some users, X’s chaotic energy is part of its appeal, particularly during major events like elections or global crises.
Musk is banking on innovation to retain and attract users. Features such as:
- Monetisation for Creators: Enhanced revenue-sharing models could draw content creators looking to monetise their audiences.
- AI Integration: Musk’s vision for integrating AI tools could create novel user experiences and attract tech enthusiasts.
- Expanded Content Formats: From long-form posts to video content, X is broadening its scope, aiming to compete not just with social media platforms but also with content hubs like YouTube or Substack.
Ironically, the very chaos of the 2024 U.S. elections could work in X’s favour. As political debates heat up, X’s reputation as the default battleground for ideological clashes may keep it at the centre of the social media conversation. For all its flaws, X’s unmatched cultural cachet and entrenched user habits may make it difficult to dethrone.
However, Musk’s leadership remains a double-edged sword. While his changes have driven innovation, they’ve also alienated swaths of users and advertisers. X’s ability to retain its crown will depend on whether Musk can stabilise the platform while capitalising on its strengths.
Wildcard: Fragmentation of the Social Media Landscape
It’s also possible that no single platform will “win” the Xodus. Instead, we may see further fragmentation of the social media ecosystem, with users dividing their time across multiple platforms based on their needs:
- Threads for casual conversations and brand-safe interactions.
- Bluesky for privacy-conscious users seeking decentralisation.
- X for breaking news, political debates, and high-energy discourse.
This fragmentation reflects broader trends in digital culture, where audiences increasingly gravitate toward platforms that align with their specific values and preferences. Rather than a winner-take-all outcome, the future of social media may be one of coexistence and specialisation.
The race to win over disillusioned X users is far from over. Threads has the corporate muscle to dominate if it continues improving and defining its identity. Bluesky offers a principled alternative for niche audiences who value decentralisation and autonomy. Meanwhile, X’s cultural significance and real-time relevance remain formidable, even amidst controversy.
Ultimately, the outcome will depend on whether users prioritise safety, control, or cultural relevance—and how well each platform adapts to these evolving demands. In the battle for the future of social media, the winner may not be the largest or the loudest, but the one that best understands and serves its audience.
